A Proactive Contingency Framework for BaconManito Geothermal Project (BMGP) Forced Outage Management

Abstract

The global energy transition relies heavily on sustainable baseload generation, a role uniquely fulfilled by geothermal energy. In the Philippines, the Bacon-Manito Geothermal Project (BMGP) is a critical asset for grid stability; however, the complex operational environment of geothermal extraction makes the facility inherently vulnerable to material degradation and forced outages. Currently, BMGP’s outage management is dominated by a reactive restoration culture rather than strategic anticipation, creating an unoperationalized gap between abstract organizational resilience theory and complex engineering realities. This study aims to address this operational void by developing a Proactive Contingency Framework for BMGP Forced Outage Management to enhance operational continuity and systemic resilience. A three-phase mixed-method research design was employed, utilizing semi-structured interviews, systematic data abstraction from archival outage reports, and comprehensive document reviews to assess current resilience capabilities, identify specific systemic challenges, and construct the framework. The findings reveal that while BMGP exhibits high technical proficiency in post-incident recovery, proactive continuity is severely constrained by systemic frictions. Technically, the plant relies on reactive threshold triggers and struggles with recurring failure modes (e.g., in the Circulating Water System), creating a continuous "maintenance backlog ripple effect". Financially, rigid "zero-sum" budgeting, tedious stage-gating, and strict purchase request deadlines act as a "fiscal cliff" that delays proactive resilience projects and emergency spending. Organizationally, site-level risk management is structurally siloed, and post-outage evaluations focus almost entirely on mechanical fixes, consistently overlooking systemic organizational precursors like procurement delays and staffing gaps. The study concludes that transitioning BMGP toward sustained strategic resilience requires shifting from reactive maintenance to condition-based predictive operations. It is highly recommended that management implement the proposed Proactive Contingency Framework, which integrates specialized technical risk management, resource specificity, and adaptive governance. By establishing a Condition-Based Operational Baseline, a Pre-Positioned Resilience Fund, Green-Lane procurement, and an Adaptive Governance Structure, BMGP can reduce unscheduled downtime, secure long-term plant integrity, and bolster the energy security of the Philippine grid.